Three Point Estimation In Activity Duration in Project Management

As you can probably guess, three point estimation uses three estimates when average come with with a final estimate. The estimate you will likely use in this technique are the most likely estimate (tM), an optimistic estimate (tO), and a pessimistic estimate (tP). The most likely estimate assumes there are no disasters and the activity can be completed as planned. The optimistic estimate is the fastest time frame in which your resource can complete the activity. The pessimistic estimate assumes the worst happens, and it takes much longer than planned to get the activity completed.


  • Triangular Distribution Formulae – tE = (tO + tM +tP)/3 = Time Estimate for Project Completion.
  • Beta Distribution Formulae- tE= (tO +4tM +tP)/6 = Time Estimate for Project Completion when backed by Historical Data from similar projects.


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